According to researchers, fifty years after the Eternit asbestos factory in Casale Monferrato, Italy, shut down, mesothelioma rates are still high, but are slowly decreasing. The scientists say because of the fatal disease’s long latency period, it will remain a serious health problem for at least two more decades.

Asbestos Cement Factory Leaves Legacy of Mesothelioma Deaths
The Eternit plant in Casale Monferrato was Italy’s largest asbestos-cement factory. It operated from 1907 to 1986, with many people who lived in the region working there and suffering occupational exposure. Additionally the plant was located just 500 meters from residential areas, making exposure to asbestos virtually unavoidable, and asbestos waste powder was distributed to residents, who used it for insulation and courtyard surfacing until the 1980s.
With the region representing one of the world’s worst environmental contaminations, scientists from the University of Turin in Italy used mathematical models to make predictions about how many people were likely to be diagnosed with mesothelioma in the future. They concluded that by 2042—fifty years after Italy imposed an asbestos ban—only about eight men and nine women will develop the disease each year, compared to hundreds of cases during peak years.
Over One Thousand Mesothelioma Cases Included in Study
The researchers gathered data on 1,282 confirmed cases of mesothelioma that were diagnosed among residents of the Casale Monferrato region between 1990 and 2021. They found that women in the area were affected at nearly double the national rate. Nearly two-thirds of the cases in males were linked to workplace exposure, but only 21 percent of female cases were connected to jobs. Among women, 58 percent contracted the disease through environmental or secondary exposure, such as breathing fibers brought home on contaminated work clothing or from asbestos powder used around their homes and neighborhoods.
The incidence of mesothelioma was highest among men born between 1930 and 1939, reaching 154 cases per 100,000 people, while women born between 1920 and 1929 had peak rates of 105 per 100,000. These generations entered adulthood during the Eternit factory’s most productive years, when no safety regulations existed. The disease didn’t manifest until decades later due to its extremely long latency period of up to 50 years.
Residents born after 1970 reached adulthood after major exposure reductions and Italy’s 1992 asbestos ban, and as a result showed much lower rates—only 6 cases per 100,000 in men and 2 per 100,000 in women. Still, the researchers predict that mesothelioma will continue affecting Casale Monferrato residents well into the 2040s, proving that environmental contamination’s impact persists for generations after asbestos use stops.
If you or someone you love has been diagnosed with mesothelioma, the Patient Advocates at Mesothelioma.net are here to help. Contact us today at 1-800-692-8608 to learn more.